What Are The Odds?
Not everyone approaches questions the same way of course. Not everyone applies the same kind of logic to attempt to solve a mystery. But just for a moment, let's approach the Brushy Bill claim by creating a scenario to examine the question "What Are The Odds?".
To do that, let's pretend it is 1950 and we know for a fact that Billy The Kid is still alive and kicking somewhere in Texas and we need to find him through the process of elimination. It's just an exercise in logic! It might go something like this:
We know we need someone who is about 5' 8" tall so in order to avoid overlooking the real culprit we insist that all men in Texas within an inch or so of that height and aged 90 or so be considered. It's reasonable to think there would be hundreds of them. We send letters out to all of them and ask the ones who have larger than average wrists with small hands capable of pulling out of handcuffs submit to further examination by attending a meeting at a convention center in Dallas. I'm not sure how but let's pretend we have a way of forcing all these men to attend (we're just pretending anway). I think it's a stretch but to be more than fair, let's say we had a hundred men show up to be examined further. Once everyone has arrived and enjoyed a nice meal at our expense, we begin with a written examination asking numerous questions about the Lincoln County War, Billy The Kid's activities, the original floor plans of the Lincoln County Courthouse and the McSweens' home. We don't require a perfect score, after all, these men are all around 90 years old, but we do eliminate anyone who fails the test. We thank those who failed for their participation, give them all a small memento for their trouble and send them back home. Again, to be more than fair, let's pretend 25 or so passed the written test and remain. Next we perform a physical examination to eliminate anyone who has no scars from gunshot wounds, and anyone who is not ambidextrous. Although we'd probably already be down to just one man, to be more than fair, let's pretend we now have eliminated everyone except three old fellas who happen to meet all those criteria. We've run out of ways to test them? Well, as a last resort, after reminding them they'll be putting themselves at risk of being sent to jail or executed for murder, we ask if any of them wish to claim they are the one and only Billy The Kid. You want to take a wild guess who the one remaining candidate is? Well, it's not Oliver Pleasant Roberts. That's only an alias of his.
Don't you think Brushy Bill, birthname William Henry Roberts, would be the only old fella left? I do. I'm not suggesting this proves anything. It's only pretending. But it does help to illustrate the logic used by many who believe Brushy Bill was the one and only Billy The Kid!
